Monday, August 31, 2009

RALLIES FAIL TO SPUR SET

       Last week the SET50 Index went up 7.86 points or 1.70 per cent to 470.69 while the SET50 Index Futures, with S50U09 having the nearest maturity expiring at the end of September, rose 7 points or 1.53 per cent to 463.9.
       The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged throughout the week. Higher new home sales and the renomination of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke boosted investor confidence.
       Other major stock markets also rallied, thanks to the rising oil price and higher confidence in the US economic turnaround.
       The SET Index, however, moved narrowly as investors preferred staying on the sidelines despite the solid economic indicators announced by the Fiscal Policy Office and the rise in the petrol price.
       Average daily futures trading volume was 5,558 contracts, lower than the previous week's 8,918. Openinterest contracts as of last Thursday numbered 42,886, up 988 from the previous week.
       The total weekly futures volume was 44,592 contracts worth Bt19.81 billion. Of these, 35,892 were for SET 50 Index Futures, 2,648 were singlestock futures, 3,967 were gold futures and 2,085 were SET50 Index options.

Friday, August 28, 2009

STUDY INDENTIFIES STOCKS GIVING MOST VALUE TO INVESTORS

       PTT, PTT Exploration and Production, Advanced Info Service, Siam Cement, Siam City Cement, Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding, BEC World and Bumrungrad Hospital are the eight stocks that have returned the most value to investors over the past six years.
       The findings came from a study by Nida Business School based on market value added (MVA) and economic value added (EVA), Aekkachai Nittayagasetwat, dean of Business Administration, told a seminar yesterday on Crisis Watch series 9 "Investment@ Risk Rating Map".
       MVA and EVA are methods used to evaluate how much a company's executives would be able to add value to their company's stock.
       One of the conclusions is that despite showing net profit, a company might not have the potential to grow consistently in the future. Most stock investment analysis is based on the book value of a company, which generally reflects the company's operating results but misses operating risks both short and long term.
       On the other hand, an MVA and EVA analysis includes opportunity costs, investment risk of new projects and accumulated gains or losses. The real value of a stock is reflected. For example, a company could invest in a certain project that has a chance of not generating revenues in the future.
       The MVA study alone covered listed firms over the past seven years starting in 2002. Seven stocks were listed in the top 10 all the time. They were PTT, PTTEP, AIS, SCG, Shin Corp, Land and Houses, and Ratch.
       MVA reflects the positive expectation that investors have for certain stocks.
       The EVA found four stocks listed in the top 10 each year - PTT, AIS, PTTEP and SCCC. Stocks on the top10 list for six years were SCG, Ratch and BEC. This reflects regular profitmaking in terms of the economics of these firms.
       Combining MVA and EVA, the institute came up with the eight stocks with the highest valueadded to investors who are looking for longterm investment opportunities in stocks with strong fundamentals and regular performance in both stock price and earnings.
       Sukit Udomsirikul, deputy managing director of Siam City Research Institute, said the global economy already bottomed out in the first half of the year and would move toward a more stable stage in the second half.
       However, the recovery rate depends largely on the government's stimulus policies.
       "Although global economic recovery is on the way, there's still some risk. The growth in GDP was mainly due to government investment, while the private sector has hardly invested. With government spending, economic growth could become a W-shaped recovery," he said.

Most Asian shares drop on profit-taking, China worries

       BANGKOK 652.40 -5.88
       The Thai stock market slipped 0.89%yesterday on profit-taking after recent gains, an analyst said.
       The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET )composite index fell 5.88 points to close at 652.40, while the blue-chip SET-50 index lost 4.03 points to close at 466.77.
       Losers led gainers 236 to 133 and 95 stocks were unchanged on turnover of 5.7 billion shares worth 22.7 billion baht (US$666.8 million).
       The Thai baht closed unchanged at 34.02-03 to one dollar while the unit rose against the euro to close at 48.50-54, compared to Wednesday's close of 48.67-70.
       TOKYO 10,473.97 -165.74
       Shares skidded lower yesterday as a stronger yen and weak Chinese stocks encouraged investors to lock in gains after the market reached a near 11-month high, dealers said.
       The benchmark Nikkei-225 index fell 165.74 points, or 1.56%, to 10,473.97, a day after finishing at the best level since October 3.
       The broader Topix index of all first section shares declined 11.36 points, or 1.16%, to 964.23.
       Investors reacted nervously after the Chinese authorities said they would try to rein in overcapacity in industries including steel and cement.
       Expor ters were also under pressure after the dollar fell back below the 94-yen level, darkening the outlook for overseas earnings.
       Global stock markets have risen sharply in recent weeks and investors are becoming anxious about whether tentative signs of an improvement in the global economy will continue as the effect of government stimulus spending fades.
       Players are now wondering whether the emerging recovery trends are sustainable without temporary boosts by government policies," Mizuho Securities market analyst Yukio Takahashi told Dow Jones Newswires.
       Political uncertainty also kept buyers at bay ahead of Japan's election Sunday,with voter sur veys suggesting Prime Minister Taro Aso's ruling party is likely to be swept from power after half a century of almost unbroken rule.
       It has become nearly certain that the biggest opposition party the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will win the election," RBS Securities economist RuiXue Xu wrote in a research note.
       The market's focus thus has moved to the post-election political situations and its impact on the assets markets and the economy assuming the DPJ wins."
       The opposition has pledged to put the focus on households rather than companies, with cash allowances for child-raising, free high-school education,an increased minimum wage, petrol tax cuts and an end to highway tolls.
       HONG KONG 20,242.75 -213.57
       Share prices closed 1.04% lower yesterday on weaker blue-chip earnings and as they tracked falls in China on concerns over further tightening by Beijing, dealers said.
       The benchmark Hang Seng Index finished 213.57 points lower at 20,242.75.Turnover was HK$58.86 billion (US$7.59 billion).
       Shanghai shares weighed on Hong Kong sentiment after closing 0.71% lower following a statement from China's State Council on Wednesday that it will curb overcapacity in several industries,analysts said.
       I think corrective pressure is mounting due to a lack of positive catalysts in the Hong Kong market," Sun Hung Kai Financial strategist Castor Pang told Dow Jones Newswires.
       Also, investors are concerned Beijing will adopt further tightening measures,"he said.
       Retailer Esprit was the weakest blue chip, plummeting 15% to 50.90 after reporting a 26% decline in full-year net profit due to weak wholesale business.
       Hong Kong-listed Chinese proper ty firms also fell after China Vanke, the countr y's largest developer by market value, said Thursday it plans to raise 11.2 billion yuan (US$1.64 billion) through a secondary public offering of new shares to fund construction projects.
       Shimao Proper ties dropped 3.6% to 12.34, Sino-Ocean Land fell 3.9% to 6.92 and R&F Properties was down 5.5% at 13.30.
       Oil producer CNOOC fell 3.0% to 10.34 after posting Wednesday a 55.0% slump in its first-half net profit due to a sharp fall in crude prices.
       However, Wharf rose 6.5% to 35.90 on ratings upgrades following strong firsthalf results and the emergence of China property sales as another key earnings driver for the company.
       SYDNEY 4,458.10 -6.30
       Shares closed flat yesterday, with buoyant financial stocks countering bearish resources amid a surprise jump in business investment, dealers said.
       The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 eased 3.7 points or 0.08 percent to 4,450.8, while the broader All Ordinaries was down 6.3 points at 4,458.1.
       Turnover was 3.13 billion shares worth A$6.09 billion (US$5.04 billion) with 528 stocks up, 556 down and 316 flat.
       We've got a bit of weakness in the resources sector, which is offsetting the generally positive financials sector and a number of industrials today," said Macquarie Private Wealth adviser Helen Spencer.
       A surprise 3.3% on-quarter jump in business investment helped buoy the resources-heavy market, which was weighed down by weaker overnight commodity prices, said Spencer.
       (It) is certainly a positive tick for the economy," she said.
       SINGAPORE 2,642.23 +13.80
       Shares closed 0.53% higher yesterday,boosted by underlying expectations for an economic recovery, dealers said.
       The blue-chip Straits Times Index added 13.80 points to 2,642.23 on volume of 3.31 billion shares worth S$1.86 billion (US$1.28 billion). Analysts said the strength of the Singapore market is being underpinned by signs of an economic rebound.
       DBS Group Research said it now expects the city-state's gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by a narrower 3.0% this year, compared with its previous forecast for a shrinkage of 5.0%.
       It also expects GDP to grow 5.2% next year instead of 4.8% as earlier projected.
       Among the banks, DBS fell 12 cents to 12.88 dollars while rival United Overseas Bank climbed 14 cents to 17.02 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp added three cents to 8.12.
       KUALA LUMPUR 1,176.90 +4.34
       Share prices closed up 0.37% yesterday in thin volume, dealers said.
       The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index gained 4.34 points to 1,176.90 with a volume of 585 million shares worth one billion ringgit (US$285.51 million).
       There were 292 gainers, 363 losers and 241 counters traded unchanged.
       The signals are rather mixed; so the stocks attracting greatest attention are speculative plays and lower liners, large funds are probably still watching out for a clearer market direction," a dealer told Dow Jones Newswires.
       Decliners included state energy provider Tenaga which slipped 1.2% to 8.00 ringgit. Property group SunCity fell 2.9% to 3.30 ringgit.
       On the upside, infrastructure investment group MMC Corp rose 5.7% to 2.42 ringgit while communications solutions provider Time DotCom climbed 7.8% to 0.42 ringgit.
       SEOUL 1,599.33 -14.79
       Shares closed 0.92% lower yesterday on profit-taking as investors shrugged off positive US housing data, dealers said.
       The benchmark KOSPI ended down 14.79 points at 1,599.33. Volume was 420.8 million shares worth 6.14 trillion won (US$4.92 billion). Losers outpaced gainers 520 to 303.
       Analysts said positive US housing data failed to boost sentiment but investors saw stronger-than-expected US new home sales as a good sign.
       T here's no visible negative factor hurting sentiment. The only negative I can find is that stocks had risen sharply without any meaningful correction,"Kim Seong-Bong of Samsung Securities told Dow Jones Newswires.
       Samsung Electronics declined 1.3%to 767,000 won and Hyundai Motor fell 1.9% to 101,500 won.
       KB Financial Group lost 1.6% to 53,800 won, Shinhan Financial Group fell 2.2%to 41,500 won and Woori Finance Holdings shed 4.5% to 13,950 won.
       TAIPEI 6,690.75 -28.40
       Share prices closed 0.42% lower yesterday as investors stayed on the sidelines amid continued worries over the health of the local economy.
       The weighted index dropped 28.4 points to 6,690.75 on turnover of TA$78.63 billion (US$2.4 billion).
       Losers outnumbered gainers 1,361 to 834, while 228 stocks remained unchanged.
       But a total of 27 shares rose to their daily 7.0% limit, against 15 limit-down.
       The market opened low and stayed in negative terr itor y duri ng most of the trading session despite some bargainhunting in construction and assetrelated plays, analysts said.
       Investors were reluctant to build up portfolios due to a lack of positive leads,"said Allen Lin of Concord Securities.
       The reluctance also accounted for the continued decline in trading volume over recent weeks, he said, adding that if the trend continues, the market may test 6,100 points in September.
       WELLINGTON 3,076.42 -14.48
       New Zealand shares closed 0.47%lower yesterday following a weak lead from overseas markets, dealers said.
       The benchmark NZX-50 index dropped 14.48 points to 3,076.42 on tur nover worth NZ$107.1 million (US$72.7 million).
       There were 52 falls and 39 rises among the 120 stocks traded.
       Earnings results were mixed and investors continued to reward good news,said Stephen Wright of ASB Securities.
       Air New Zealand fell two cents to 1.23 dollars after revealing a 90% slump in annual net profit.
       The result was better than expected.Air New Zealand management has been in front of the curve on reducing capacity at a greater rate than demand is falling," said Wright.
       Retail investor Hellaby fell 10 cents to 1.27 dollars after announcing poor earnings results.
       JAKARTA 2,356.06 -24.02
       Shares ended 1.01% lower yesterday,weighed by a weak rupiah and falls across Asian markets, dealers said.
       The Jakarta Composite Index fell 24.02 points to 2,356.06 in moderate trade.
       Foreign selling in most commodity and bank stocks drove the main index lower," a trader told Dow Jones Newswires.
       Nickel miner Inco dropped 7.2% to 4,250 rupiah, coal miner Bumi Resources fell four percent to 2,975 on lower commodity prices, while Bank Danamon fell 3.1% to 4,675 on profit-taking.
       The rupiah ended weaker at 10,170 to the dollar compared to 10,085 at the last close.
       SHANGHAI 2,946.40 -21.20
       Shares closed down 0.71% yesterday as fund-raising plans by several large companies raised concerns about a share supply glut, dealers said.
       The Sh anghai Composite Index,which covers A and B shares, was down 21.20 points at 2,946.40 on turnover of 145.2 billion yuan (US$21.3 billion).
       Worr ies that pending stock sales would flood the market with shares outweighed bargain-hunting after the key index fell about 20% between August 4 and August 19, traders said.

GRAMMY UNIT TO BOOST MONEY CHANNEL

       GMM Grammy subsidiary Index Creative Village has been tasked with improving the programming on the Money Channel now that its parent has become a major shareholder in the satellite television network.
       The move is aimed at tapping the mass market.
       Grammy now owns half of Family Know-How, which was founded by the Stock Exchange of Thailand to operate the Money Channel as a source of economic and investment news.
       Grammy has assigned Index to develop content and produce at least 10 shows for the network.
       Index co-CEO Kreingkrai Kanjanapokin said the company would oversee all of the Money Channel's programming and that this would include improving existing programmes and adding new ones targeted at a general audience.
       He said the channel shoul not only focus on stock and invesment news, but also cover finance, banking and money management.
       Index expects to launch the new programmes in November, while its improvements to existing programming will be seen in next year's first quarter.
       The company will also launch two new programmes to air via satellite for TrueVisions in October.
       Index's programme-production arm contributed revenue of Bt17.75 million in the first seven months of the year, Kreingkrai said.
       He said the company expects full-year revenue of Bt25 million from television production, increasing next year to Bt60 million from taking charge of programming at the Money Channel.
       Grammy director Sumeth Damrongchaitham said the company paid Bt25 million for its 50-per-cent stake in Family Know-How and plans to increase airtime to 18 hours a day, from eight now.
       The company expects to turn a profit from the increased airtime.
       Sumeth, who is also the new managing director of Family Know-How, said Grammy wanted to enhance the Money Channel's potential.
       Stock Exchange of Thailand president Patareeya Benjapholchai said the process of increasing Family Know-How's capital would be completed within two months and that the SET would start working with GMM Grammy as quickly as possible.
       Programming will serve two main audience groups: investors and the general public. An SET survey indicated some audience members found if difficult to understand the shows that aired now, due to the technical terms.
       In the future, Grammy will help the SET produce shows aimed at a general audience.
       Regarding Grammy's financial performance, Sumeth said the company's second-half finanacial performance was expected to be similar to last year's in terms of both revenue and net profit, due to the slowing economy and tougher market competition.
       Last year, Grammy achieved revenue of Bt7.83 billion and for a net profit of Bt705 million.

FUND MANAGERS UNFAZED BY RED'S RALLY

       Fund managers believe the red-shirt protest this weekend will be peaceful and not have a negative impact on the stock market, and that Asian stock markets are promising for investors. Vana Bulboon, CEO of UOB Asset Management, said the current global economic recovery would positively impact the Asian market. Financial institutions in Asia have been least affected by the global financial crisis, and so the Asian economy will turn around the soonest.
       He believes the political situation in Thailand as well as the redshirt protest due on Sunday will not lead to further violence, and that foreign investors can be expected to understand the situation very well.
       "There has been a problem for a long time in Thai politics, and foreigners already know about this. But once the situation settles well, I believe foreign investors will invest more in the Thai market," Vana said.
       Jotika Savanananda, president of SCB Asset Management, also believes the red shirts' demonstration will not lead to any violence or affect economic activity. The country's political problems have built up over a long time and are well understood by foreign investors, she said.
       "I believe the redshirt protest won't affect investment in the capital market right now," Jotika said.
       She added that the local stock market was currently strong enough, with Thai economic indicators showing signs of recovery in line with a global recovery.
       She said the economy next year is expected to record positive growth. The Bank of Thailand yesterday forecast grossdomesticproduct growth for 2010 at 4.55 per cent.
       Meanwhile, UOB Asset Management recently launched the UOB Smart Asia Recovery fund, with the main focus in bigcap stocks in Asia. It invests 37.5 per cent in China, 25 per cent in Singapore, 18.75 per cent in Hong Kong, 12.5 per cent in Taiwan and 6.25 per cent in Thailand.
       The SCB Asian Emerging Market Fund has invested in Asian stock markets, with emerging markets so far generating satisfactory results - and a high investment proportion in Thailand.
       The returns in the three and sixmonth periods to August 25 were 16.36 per cent and 69.28 per cent, respectively. The net asset value was at Bt6.8052 per unit as of August 25.