Sunday, October 4, 2009

GRIM JOBLESS RATE POUNDS STOCKS

       "Reality is beginning to set in that the recovery is going to be very slow and erratic."
       US Stock fell for a fourth day and the dollar slumped as employers cut more jobs than economists forecast, increasing speculation the Federal Reserve will postpone the withdrawal of monetary stimulus as the economy struggles to recover.
       The dollar fell against the euro as the economy shed 263,000 positions in September, more than the 175,000 median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.
       Gold rallied as an alternative to the falling greeback. Treasuries declined as yields near the lowest in more than four months hurt demand before next week's US$78 billion (Bt2.6 trillion) in auctions. Oil fell after two days of gains.
       "Reality is beginning to set in that this recovery is going to be very slow in developing and erratic as it goes on," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Robert W Baird in Nashville,Tennessee, which manages $18 billion, Tennessee, which manages $18 billion. "The market was up for seven straight months. It's due for a correction."
       The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 0.5 per cent to 1,025.21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 21.61 points to 9,487.67.
       The S&P 500 declined 1.8 per cent this week on concern the seven-month rally in equities has outpaced prospects for an economic recovery.
       The benchmark index umped almost 15 per cent in the July-to-September period to give it a two-quarter advance of 34 per cent, the biggestsince a 42 pr cent surge in the first half of 1975.
       September's job losses increased the unemployment rate from 9.7 per cent in August to 9.8 per cent, the highest since 1983.
       Since the recession began in December 2007, 7.2 million positions have been eliminated, the biggest declien since the Great Depression.
       "The number shows this is going to be a slow and painful recovery process,_said Jay Mueller, who manages about $3 billion of bonds at Wells Fargo Capital Management in Milwaukee. "We will have sub-trend growth for an extended period. There is still too much debt in the system and if we keep losing jobs like this we will not get income growth."
       The dollar touched the strongest level versus the euro in almost a month before erasing its gain as concern rising unemployment will push back the timeline for an interst rate increase by the Fed. Interest-rage futures contractrs on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 38-per-cent chance the central bak would increase the fed funds target from the range of zero to 0.25 per cent through March, compared with 45 per cent odds on Thursday.
       Over the past few months, the dollar tended to appreciate on negative US economic reports as investors sought safety in the world's main reserve currency.
       That pattern may be changing as bad news cements expectations for the Fed to keep its interest rates low while other central banks may start to increase theirs, according to Laurent Desbois, president in Montreal of Fjord Capital, a currency fund manager with $750 million under management.
       Oil for November delivery fell 99 today's economic numbers point it out very clearly," said James Cordier, port folio manager at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida. "Main Street is not getting better, and that is where the rubbler hits the road as far as demand goes."
       Gold futures for December delivery climbed $3.60, or 0.4 per cent to $1,004.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. This week, the metal gained 1.3 per cent.
       "It's about the buck," said Frank Lesh, an analyst at FuturePath Trading in Chicago. "The dollar is, has been and will be the main driver for gold."

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